Phu Vo ECON 120: Economics of Crime March 05, 2026 Paper 3: National Crime Statistics, United States, From 1960- 2022
For Project 3, I looked at reported crime statistics in all states across the entire United States from 1960-2022. Washington, D.C., was excluded because it is not a state and its crime rates resemble those of large cities, which could skew later analysis. The project covers regional crime trends, historic crime change (year-over-year) for violent and property crime, and types of property crime in North Carolina through three data visualizations.
The data used comes from long-term crime trends recorded using state-level data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting database, which compiles information voluntarily reported annually by more than 18,000 law enforcement agencies across the United States (Federal Bureau of Investigation). Variables used for analysis include murder rate, violent crime rate, property crime rate, and specific property crime categories such as burglary (unlawful entry to commit felony/theft), larceny (theft without force), and motor vehicle (auto) theft. States were grouped into four regions (South, West, Midwest, Northeast) according to the U.S. Census regional classification (U.S. Census). To compare crime patterns across geographic areas and temporal spans, while accounting for variations in population size, raw counts were transformed into standardized rates (per 100,000 residents).
The initial data-viz shows regional murder rate trends using a line chart that tracks the average murder rate per 100,000 residents across the 4 regions between 1960-2022. The shaded reference band highlights the period from 1972-1976, during which the Supreme Court temporarily suspended the death penalty’s implementation following the Furman v. Georgia ruling (Bomboy, 2023). In that case, the Court had ruled that the existing application of the death penalty had violated the Eighth Amendment “[no] cruel and usual punishment” clause, which effectively created a nationwide moratorium until sentencing guidelines were resolved following the “Greggcases” in 1976 (Bomboy, 2023). In these decisions, the Court confirmed that capital punishment is legal under specific circumstances. When looking at the regional trends, the South consistently exhibits the highest murder rates, while the Northeast maintains the lowest levels throughout the time period. If executions were suspended, rational-choice theory, as discussed in class, would predict higher murder rates because the expected cost of committing murder decreases. However, the data does not reveal an immediate or dramatic structural break in murder rates during 1972-1976. Instead, the broader trend shows murder rates rising across most of the country and maintaining their levels from the 70s through until the early 90s. The pattern suggests that long-term social and economic factors play a larger role in shaping murder rates than temporary suspension of capital punishment alone.
The second visualization uses an animated scatterplot visual to examine the relationship between violent crime rates and property crime rates across the United States over time. In the scatterplot, each state is represented as a circle, sized by population, with colors representing their geographic region. In the early 60s, most states cluster towards the lower left portion of the chart, reflecting relatively low levels of both violent and property crime during that time. However, social unrest related to Vietnam and rising drug use might have contributed to the rapid increase in crime from 1967 onwards. In particular, violent crime exploded– almost doubling in New York between 1967 to 1972. States gradually shift upward and to the right as crime rates rise, particularly during the late 80s and early 90s, but after the period, the animation shows a clear movement back towards lower crime rates as both violent and property crimes decline nationwide. The pattern aligns closely with broader national research on crime trends. According to the Pew Research Center, violent crime rates in the U.S. declined by 49% between 1993 and 2022, while property crime rates fell by about 59% over the same period (Gramlich, 2024). Although the downward trend is not perfectly consistent, as some years show increases, the overall trajectory displays a substantial, long-term decline in crime across the country. One explanation could be the legalization of abortion, which reduces crime as the children who are pushed to engage in criminal activity due to their environments are no longer born.
The final visualization examines property crime trends within North Carolina by using a stacked bar chart that separates property crime into three primary categories: burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Property crime definitions are easier to compare across decades as societal views of violence change. North Carolina’s trend matches the national pattern– with property crime peaking in the 90s before declining in the decades after. Using stacked bars shows that larceny/theft consistently represents the largest share of property crime, with burglary a smaller proportion, and auto theft the least significant part of total incidents. North Carolina reported 1,494 incidents reported per 100,000 people in North Carolina compared to the national average of “1,401 per 100,000 people” (Gramlich, 2024). Unfortunately, official crime statistics capture only a portion of actual crime. In 2022, about 41.5% of violent crimes and 31.8% of property crimes were reported to police (Gramlich, 2024). Clearance rates are also low, particularly for property crimes. While the dataset provides valuable insight into long-term patterns, the true scale of crime is likely larger than statistics suggest, especially as many victims become more apathetic towards police effectiveness, fear law enforcement, or think that crimes could be too minor to report.
References
Bomboy, S. (2023, June 29). On this day, Supreme Court temporarily finds death penalty unconstitutional. National Constitution Center. https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-supreme-court-temporarily-finds-death-p enalty-unconstitutional Federal Bureau of Investigation. State-level crime rates per 100,000 people (1960-2022). Uniform Crime Reporting Database. https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/home Gramlich, J. (2024, April 24). What the data says about crime in the U.S. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-i n-the-us/ U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Census Regions and Divisions of the United States. U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us_regdiv.pdf
Author’s Statement
During the write-up of Project 3, and the creation of the dashboard, no generative AI tools were used to assist with the production of this assignment. All research, writing, and revision were completely and independently done by me to develop foundational writing and research skills.